Journal of Woman and Family Studies

Changes in the ideal of childbearing and its causes in Iran between 2004 and 2015

Document Type : Research/Original/Regular

Author

Assistant Professor, Sociology,Arak University. Arak, Iran. University

Abstract

In societies with low fertility, where reproductive behavior is consciously controlled by individuals, childbearing tendencies and preferences are important in studying reproductive changes, and the ideal number of children is important as one of the indicators of future fertility changes. The aim of this study is to identify the ideals of childbearing in Iran and explain its fluctuations and differences in the country. This study has used the secondary analysis of the data of the National Survey of Iranian Cultural Developments in 2004 and the National Survey of Values and Attitudes in Iran, which was collected in 2015. The statistical population is people over 15 years old living in urban and rural areas of the provinces. Findings are limited to the variables in the data and have been used as much as possible to measure the ideals of fertility. The results show that in 1383 and 1394 the tendency to the ideal of two children was dominant and is equal to 62.3 and 48.1%, respectively, but during these years the tendency to the ideal of three children and more has increased and It has increased from 30.8% to 43.2%. The results of multivariate analysis of surveys in 1383 and 1394 show that by controlling other variables, education and religion have had the highest effect and difference in the ideal number of children during these years.

Highlights

Background & Purpose

Childbearing preferences are one of the most important decisions and actions in life that must be conceptualized economically, socially and culturally. Opportunities and motivations for childbearing in populations and population subgroups vary from community to community, and all of these lead to differences in the desired number of children in different economic, social, and cultural contexts (Bachrach & Morgan, 2011). Obviously, fertility preferences of individuals are influenced by various determinants such as age, age and length of marriage, level of education, place of residence, occupation, income and other factors and are not the same for all age and educational groups, and these preferences are due to Different are constantly changing over time (Iacovo & Tavares, 2011). Ideals, preferences, desirability, and goals of fertility are relatively soft concepts (Quesnel-Vallee & Morgan, 2003) and form the main link in the chain of childbearing decisions. They are often the key determinants of decisions (Philipov & Bernardi, 2011) and reproductive behavior (Schoen & et al, 1999). It is obvious that individuals' fertility tendencies are influenced by different determinants, and these preferences are constantly changing over time for various reasons (Iacovou & Tavares, 2011). Changes in preferences over time can be due to changes in family attitudes, childbearing and the value of the child in society. Thus, very low fertility does not continue in the long run without changes in family size preferences (Testa & Grilli, 2006; Goldstein, Lutz & Testa, 2003).

 

 

Method

 The present study is a secondary analysis and survey method. The statistical population is people over 15 years old in urban and rural households living in the provinces of the country in 2004 and 2015. The unit of analysis is the individual. The sample size in the National Survey of Iranian Cultural Developments in 1383 is equal to 8608 people and in the survey of Iranian values and attitudes in 1394 is equal to 14906 people. Poisson regression was used for multivariate analysis of data and mean, t-test and analysis of variance were used for bivariate analysis according to the level of measurement of variables.

 

Results

Findings of multivariate analysis in 2004 and 2015 show that among socio-economic variables, the level of education has the highest effect and a significant difference on the desired number of children. The highest differences in fertility preferences were between the illiterate and elementary school students, respectively, compared to the university level. In the effect of demographic variables on the desired number of fertility, age and religion have a significant effect on the desired number of children. Among the age groups, people over 50 have higher fertility preferences than the other two groups. Religion has always had a great effect on the desired number of children and there is a significant difference in the desired number of children in 2004 and 2015 between the two groups of Shiites and Sunnis. Sample distribution in terms of demographic and socio-economic variables in the years 1394-1383 are shown in Table 1:

Table 1. Sample distribution in terms of demographic and socio-economic variables in the years 1394-1383

Variable

classes

2004

Percent

2015

Percent

Ideal number of children

0

0. 0

0. 5

1

6. 9

8. 2

2

62. 3

48. 1

3

18. 3

22. 0

4

8. 9

16. 0

5+

3. 6

5. 2

Age

15 to 29 years

49. 5

34. 6

30 to 49 years

36. 5

41. 6

Over 50 years

14. 0

23. 8

gender

Female

50. 1

50. 8

Male

49. 9

49. 2

Marital status

Unmarried due to death

1. 6

1. 6

Unmarried due to divorce

1. 0

1. 0

Married

63. 2

68. 9

religion

Shiite

90. 3

90. 1

Sunni

9. 6

9. 3

Employment status

employed

35. 0

34. 7

Unemployed

65. 0

65. 3

education level

Illiterate

15. 9

8. 0

Elementary

21. 5

18. 3

Secondary

27. 6

20. 5

Diploma

23. 5

25. 7

University

11. 5

27. 5

Socio-economic status

down

26. 1

25. 7

Average

66. 9

69. 8

Top

7. 0

4. 5

Total

 

100

100

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusion

 Among the socio-economic variables in the present study, education is the main factor in changing reproductive behaviors. The status of reproductive preferences according to the level of education shows that in both levels the tendency to have one child and two children has increased with increasing education level, but the tendency to have three children and more has decreased with increasing education. This indicates that education actually plays an important role in fertility transfer. The economic situation and childbearing preferences of the respondents indicate that the average number of desirable children in all three levels of the economic base is almost close to each other, which indicates the convergence of childbearing preferences in different economic bases. Considering the pattern of childbearing preferences in the two periods of 1383 and 1394 led to the understanding of the fact that fertility preferences are changing and should be examined from different dimensions and angles. Fertility preferences are a complex and multidimensional phenomenon that is influenced by various individual, social, economic, cultural and even political factors. Although the research findings show an increase in the ideals of childbearing during the two periods of 1383 and 1394, but the realization of childbearing of families and couples requires the implementation of policies and support programs that facilitate childbearing.

 

Ethical Considerations

Ethical validation: This study has tried to comply with the ethical codes of human research, including the benefits of the findings for the advancement of human knowledge and the coordination of research with religious and cultural standards.

Funding: The study was conducted at the personal expense of researchers.

Authors’ contribution: The article has been prepared and edited by the author himself and is an extract from the doctoral dissertation which was defended in 1397 under the guidance of Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi and Dr. Hossein Mahmoudian.

Conflict of interest: This research is not in conflict with personal or organizational interests.

Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank all the participants in this study.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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Journal of Woman and Family Studies
Volume 10, Issue 3 - Serial Number 26
November 2022
Pages 53-76